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The concept of “Zero COVID,” once perhaps a realistic ambition, is now a delusion as variants continue traveling the world circulating among humans and animals.
Thankfully, the initial waves of the pandemic, the devastating stages of intense transmission with a high rate of consequent severe illness, are over for most of the country. This doesn’t mean the virus is gone, or that transmission is low, rather the pandemic is moving into the next phase, becoming endemic.
It is almost certain the COVID-19 pandemic will evolve similar to the 1918 influenza virus.
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A century ago, a novel strain of influenza killed more than 50 million people worldwide. With time, those who contracted the virus and survived developed immunity, with life returning to normal several years later. The virus did not disappear. The virus continued to mutate, with seasonal outbreaks from milder variants, further dampened by vaccines and treatments.
Sound familiar?
The original strain of influenza was killing people of all ages, but modern day “flu,” caused by lineages of the original strain, mostly affects young children and the elderly.
It is too early to be certain, but the newest variant of concern, omicron, may be the path to making this virus endemic, if health officials would only let it. Early data on omicron show that cases are rising among the vaccinated and unvaccinated, but milder symptoms are being reported in both groups.
Nearly two years since the first case of COVID-19 was reported in Wuhan, the combination of lessened virulence, natural immunity, vaccinations and updated treatment protocols have reduced the harm of this virus. The current overall death rate (0.8%) is nearly half of what it was during last year’s winter surge (1.4%) and 10 times less than the initial wave during spring 2020 (8%).
To end the hysteria, public health officials must communicate effectively accurate, metric-driven data with advice (not mandates) on risk reduction strategies, rather than media-hyped conjecture.
Americans don’t need a White House press conference every time a new SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern is announced, especially as they become milder. New strains and variants of influenza enter our shoreline every year, yet the president doesn’t address the nation warning of impending doom, a term coined by CDC Director Rochelle Walensky during the pandemic.
To end the hysteria, public health officials must communicate effectively accurate, metric-driven data with advice (not mandates) on risk reduction strategies, rather than media-hyped conjecture.
This past week, headlines emphasized the Pfizer CEO suggesting a fourth dose of vaccine might be necessary, causing frustration and concern. This may be true for high-risk individuals, with an annual COVID booster eventually being recommended, similar to the flu shot. However, the current conversation surrounding boosters is myopic and premature. Also, Americans shouldn’t be getting public health updates from Big Pharma.
Boosting the younger, healthier populations now may be delaying the virus from becoming endemic. Allowing the virus to “run its course” has never been a public health strategy as it is risky and will lead to preventable death. However, the COVID vaccines are still protecting against severe disease and shortening the length of illness. Permitting milder infection to circulate will only increase population immunity. We have never required a vaccine to prevent the sniffles.
The addition of natural immunity from prior COVID-19 infection in a vaccinated person provides robust, long-term protection, more so than vaccine-induced immunity alone, as suggested in the SIREN study looking at over 30,000 health care workers in the U.K.
Data from the CDC show the risk of hospitalization from COVID after vaccination to be about 1 in 26,000. To put that in perspective, the lifetime odds of dying in a car crash on the way to work are 1 in 107, according to the National Safety Council (NSC). Of the fully vaccinated who are hospitalized from COVID, the average age is over 70 – which is why boosting those over 65 and other high-risk individuals has been unanimously supported. Now that the CDC has recommended boosters for everyone 16 and older, anyone who wants to further reduce their exceedingly low risk of severe illness, is able to.
People are still dying from the novel coronavirus, approximately 1,000 people a day. While the number of deaths is high, it is far less than the country has seen. The majority of preventable deaths occurring now are in people who chose not to be vaccinated and those over 80 years, similar to flu.
Health officials should allow this coronavirus to become seasonal, like the many other respiratory viruses Americans live with.
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It is obvious that extending the state of emergency is driving our children crazy, destroying our economy, and dividing the country.
The small group of people who make most policy decisions are perpetuating this pandemic and prolonging the panic with regular media interviews, press conferences, daily case counts and focusing on risk exclusion rather than risk reduction.
The constant pursuit by the White House and other government officials to boost and restrict until there are zero cases may make for good optics during election cycles, but the scientific perspective is to maximize life while minimizing death.
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Future actions should focus on reducing COVID hospitalizations while permitting mild illness to circulate. This can be done through vaccination and healthy lifestyle choices, while boosting anyone who wants it, but especially high-risk individuals and their close contacts.
It is time to get back to living life without generalized mask-wearing and vaccine cards. Americans are ready to show their smiles and shake hands again, accepting there will always be risk in everyday life.